Track record
Honest performance data
We publish the actual numbers. Pick the section that matters to you and read the "how to read this" notes — they're part of the product.
How to read this
- Strict win rate — the directional lean was on the right side of the week (excluding partial-credit calls).
- Weighted win rate — gives partial credit when the call was on the right side of zero but the move was small.
- Always-bullish baseline — naive "every week is bullish" on the same data window. This is the bar to beat for a 1-week directional product. Most managers don't.
- Backtested vs Live — the backtest replays history with date-locked tools; live is what we've published since launch. Always trust live more than backtest.
Backtested validation
Historical Validation — Not Live
- Forecasts scored
- 0
- Strict win
- —
- Weighted win
- —
- Baseline (always bullish)
- 55.8%
Live performance
no live forecasts yet
- Forecasts published
- 0
- Strict win
- —
- Weighted win
- —
Results based on fewer than 13 weeks may not be statistically significant.
Numbers recomputed every Sunday after the prior week's close. Methodology →